The Bear Traps Report
Investment Research Publication
Your partner in New York, Washington, Beijing, Brussels and Latin America managing Political & Systemic Risk in the 21st century
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Financial Advisors, Family Offices, Hedge Funds, Portfolio Managers, Trade Desks and Retail Investors all use THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT to manage global political risk


 
 

Testimonials



I am an avid reader of Bear Traps, it's a must read"

Niall Ferguson, Senior Fellow, the Hoover Institution

The Bear Traps Report provides a unique look at risk management, a value added perspective across all asset classes."

Rene J Canezin, Harvard Management Company

I’ve learned quite a lot over the past year and especially during this turbulent time in the past weeks your publications have helped a lot. My portfolio is up by a good portion but what is more important to me is that I have learned so much and your work has done much more in that process than you can imagine."

Max Plate, Plate Active Equity

After reading your daily (Bear Traps Institutional Chat Recaps) for a couple months, I can say I think you do the most value added actionable work I've ever seen after nearly 30 years of consuming research. You blend macro with micro, using both induction and deduction in your cross asset, cross signal analysis.”

Tom Kurtz, Family Office

One of the most comprehensive perspectives, a look across all asset classes. It gives us a 20,000 foot view of global risk coming at us from markets, Bear Traps is excellent."

Omeir Jilani, National Bank of Abu Dhabi

With the overload sell-side research it’s easy to sort through the noise using Bear Traps. It gives me conviction when speaking to my clients about the macroeconomic landscape and how we’ve positioned their portfolios."

Shiraz Ahmed, Raymond James

I worked with Larry at Lehman and he is both a very good person and a talented trader. The Bear Traps Report is a stand out among its research peers"

Bobby Dziedziech, Managing Director Jefferies International Limited

I don't touch the markets without a long phone call with Larry (Bear Traps founder). He might very well be a market genius."

J Madejski, Founder, Auto-Trader

The Bear Traps report is the most concise, advanced research platform we've seen. It puts global market risks into perspective - every week. Our confidence investing clients' capital is enhanced meaningfully with them in my corner."

Jack Corbett, Morgan Stanley

Larry McDonald and his team have been advising me for over 20 years. The 21 Lehman Risk Indicators have been very accurate at calling market declines over the last couple of years. I highly recommend his research to any institutional investor."

Jim Rappaport, CEO, New Boston Fund

Larry McDonald give the keynote speech at our financial advisor risk summit. Bear Traps provides a unique overview of global political risks, which are moving markets like never before."

Robert Behan, President, Calamos Investments

The Bear Traps institutional client chat on Bloomberg is one of the very finest on Wall St., adds a lot of value. It’s the best cross-asset overview out there.”

Anshu Goyal, Hedge Fund Manager, Exoduspoint
 


How To Listen When Markets Speak

Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy


 

I can’t tell you how much I learned from How to Listen When Markets Speak. The historical perspectives and insights are something every investor needs to know. Buy this book.”

MARK CUBAN

Lawrence G. McDonald, founder of the economic research platform The Bear Traps Report, got a real-world education in market risk when, as a Lehman Brothers VP, he watched the firm ignore flashing warning signs before its collapse. His analysis led him to identify twenty-one indicators for gauging the health of an economy and detecting early signals of opportunity and danger.


In How to Listen When Markets Speak, McDonald unveils his unique predictive models, connecting surprising dots between past, present, and future and outlining actionable trading ideas for staying a beat ahead of the markets. Readers will learn:


 
 

A thought-provoking work at a time when the global zeitgeist is changing in profound ways.""

GILLIAN TETT, columnist for the Financial Times and author of Anthro-Vision

From Wall Street to the White House, the fantasy of an eventual “return to normal” is still alive and well, nurtured by dangerously outdated theories. But the economic world as we know it—and the rules that govern it—are over. In the coming decade, we’ll witness sustained inflation, a series of sovereign and corporate debt crises, and a thundering of capital out of financial assets into hard assets...

...Few are prepared.

  • How disastrous Fed policy will collide with an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape to keep U.S. inflation near 3-5% for the next decade
  • How growing demand for oil and gas, underinvestment in urgently needed energy infrastructure, and cozy Russia–Saudi Arabia relations will lift the base price of energy to historic levels
  • Why hard assets and rare minerals like lithium and cobalt will outperform growth stocks, U.S. treasuries, and overcrowded passive investment strategies—and how to detect bearish and bullish trends in advance
  • How passive investing and the vehicles intended to democratize finance have fueled bubbles and ideological skew by large market participants, leaving millions of 401(k)s and IRAs at risk
  • Why America will likely lose its position as a global superpower and holder of the world’s premier reserve currency, and may be forced to slash Social Security, Medicare, and military spending

Rather than merely doomsaying, How to Listen When Markets Speak equips readers to make sense of our current moment, resist reactionary narratives and baseless analysis, and preserve their wealth in turbulent times. When markets speak, it pays to listen.


 
 


 

Membership

The Bear Traps Report is an exceptional risk management tool with solid trade ideas. I've known their team for years, highly recommend the service."

Tian Zeng, Citadel, a $24B asset manager based in Chicago


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Institutional

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inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com

WRITTEN RESEARCH INCLUDING:
Multiple account users
21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators®
Weekly Macroeconomic Recap and Overview
ETF Capitulation Trades
Medium to Long Term Equity Asset Allocation Strategies
Weekly Credit Market Overview, Covering High Yield Investment Grade and Sovereign Government Bonds
Credit Risk Analysis
Rates (Government Bonds) Trade Ideas
Short and Long Term Credit Trade Strategies
Short and Long Term Equity Trade Strategies
Client Events and Meetings with Larry McDonald and Our Analysts
Bespoke Policy Research

CONFERENCE CALLS INCLUDING:
WEEKLY Conference Calls with Larry McDonald and one of our analysts, covering Latin America, Puerto Rico, Fed / ECB meetings, European political risk, China’s Systemic Risk and opportunities, and weekly market outlook.
WEEKLY ONE-ON-ONE calls with Larry McDonald covering political risk and market outlook
WhatsApp Bear Traps Trade Alerts
Live institutional BLOOMBERG chat with over 650 Institutional Investors and more than 60 contributors
Open

- PRO -

Open

WRITTEN RESEARCH INCLUDING:
1 to 2 account users
21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators®
Weekly Macroeconomic Recap and Overview
Macro Trade Ideas, Currency Views and High Yield
ETF Capitulation Trades
Medium to Long Term Equity Asset Allocation Strategies
Weekly Credit Market Overview, Covering High Yield Investment Grade and Sovereign Government Bonds
Client Events and Meetings with Larry McDonald and Our Analysts

CONFERENCE CALLS INCLUDING:
MONTHLY Conference Calls with Larry McDonald and one of our analysts, covering Latin America, Puerto Rico, Fed / ECB meetings, European political risk, China’s Systemic Risk and opportunities, and weekly market outlook.
BIWEEKLY ONE-ON-ONE calls with Larry McDonald covering political risk and market outlook
WhatsApp Bear Traps Trade Alerts
Open

- GOLD -

Open

WRITTEN RESEARCH INCLUDING:
Single User
21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators®
Weekly Macroeconomic Recap and Overview
Macro Trade Ideas, Currency Views and High Yield
ETF Capitulation Trades

CONFERENCE CALLS INCLUDING:
MONTHLY Conference calls with Larry McDonald
Closed

- SILVER -

Currently Closed

WRITTEN RESEARCH INCLUDING:
Weekly Macro Recap
Medium to Long Term Strategies

More than 700 appearances, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, MSNBC, CNN

 

Over the last decade our Larry McDonald has made more than 700 appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, MSNBC, CNN and the Academy Award winning documentary Inside Job.

- Check our appearances here

To Learn more about THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT please contact inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com


 

“Our indicators tell us, we’re very close to a Lehman-like drawdown,”

 

“Our indicators tell us, we’re very close to a Lehman-like drawdown,” argues Larry McDonald, a former strategist at Société Générale who now runs The Bear Traps report.

- Financial Times, February 20, 2020

To Learn more about THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT please contact inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com


 

GET A FREE SAMPLE FROM THE BEAR TRAPS

 

Over 75 of the top 100 asset managers in the world turn to The Bear Traps Reports every week for analysis, trading ideas and actionable research with no bias.

To Learn more about THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT check this free sample:


 


 

In order to provide our members globally with the highest level of quality service, from time to time we restrict access. As space for new membership opens up, we can update you on availability.

Further questions please contact inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com



 

EVENTS


OUR BOOK IN THE TOP RANKED BOOKS IN FINANCE BY THE CFA INSTITUTE



When Markets Speak - Book Event - NYC March 21, 2024



When Markets Speak - Book Event - Panama - January 17, 2024



REALVISION - THE LARRY MCDONALD SERIES: DAVID EINHORN - FEB 17, 2022



CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR LARRY MCDONALD, One of The Best Finance Books of all Time - CFA



REALVISION - THE LARRY MCDONALD SERIES: MARK CUBAN - JUNE 6TH, 2020



FOX BUSINESS INTERVIEW WITH MARIA BARTIROMO, MARCH 26TH, 2020



The Bear Traps Report


 

Since 2007, 68% of stock market returns are tied to political events"

Morgan Stanley
 
 


The Bear Traps report is a weekly independent Investment Research Publication focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas. The service is tailored for asset managers, hedge funds, financial advisors, traders and more. Our report allows investors to spend a lot less time diving through research reports. We strive to get to the meat of what is moving markets.


Along with actionable trade ideas, we provide clients with a timely, first-hand look at global political market moving events. Our teams on the ground in New York, Toronto, Washington, Puerto Rico, Brussels, Dublin, Rio (Brazil) and Beijing (China) bring you closer to what is moving markets.


Since 2008, it's becoming ever more clear that politics is edging out economics as the key driver of markets"

BofA

As governments and central banks drive markets, we turn these policy decisions into actionable trade ideas for clients around the world.


Credit and political risks have a lot more impact on central bank policy decisions than economic data. Today, there is nothing more important than staying on top of global political systemic risk, these factors are moving markets like never before.


Our independent investment research stems from an elite team of analysts and strategists with real trading floor experience. Bear Traps was founded by Lawrence McDonald, he has spent 30 years working on Wall Street. He was formerly a senior distressed debt trader at Lehman Brothers and was part of the team that made $2 billion betting against the U.S housing market.


The Bear Traps Report delivers clients a unique approach measuring political policy risk and opportunities, investor sentiment - positioning and capitulation. Capital gains are found by discounting the obvious and being there for the unexpected.
Lawrence McDonald

The Bear Traps trading ideas are centered around macro market moving events. Ideas stem from former Wall Street traders, and using a 7 factor model we score and rank stocks, ETF’s and sectors for the perfect opportunity to deploy capital.


The report will give you a complete view of the global markets, where to spot opportunities, and how to avoid risk. The letter is unique and unbiased, unlike any other research on Wall Street.


This enables our subscribers to spend more time on business development by having access to our analysts’ expert opinions and a more in-depth reach of political market moving events around the globe. Getting ahead of systemic risk coming at us from Asia, Europe and Latin America will help clients avoid substantial losses and generate above average returns.


Looking at the current market landscape, political factors are more important than macro economic issues.
Billionaire, Ray Dalio - January 2018


POLITICAL RISK EVENTS MOVING MARKETS:


Subprime Crisis 2007
Lehman, Bear Sterns & Fannie & Freddie 2008
Grexit Risk 2010
Debt Ceiling 2013
Russia 2014
Central Bank Divergence 2015
Asia 2016
Brexit 2016
Turkey Coup 2016
Elections 2016

 

Lawrence McDonald

NY Times Best Selling Author, CNBC Contributor
Bear Traps Report Creator

 

Yahoo Finance - Why Tesla, Musk are winners if Trump wins: Strategist On the eve of the election, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi spoke with Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak," about Tesla's (TSLA) performance if Trump wins the presidency. McDonald explained that "if Trump wins, Musk is gonna have a very heavy hand in influencing—and basically negotiating— and try to put forth his agenda for the green agenda for Tesla." However, McDonald did warn that Trump trades "have a huge downside if Kamala wins." If that is the case, McDonald is looking at cannabis, solar, and healthcare as key Harris trades.

Larry McDonald    is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.


Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China’s Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.


In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today’s leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 – 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Société Générale.


In 2010 he founded an investment research firm which publishes the The Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.


In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies.


Prior to working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities information with news, valuation, terms and analysis tools for convertible bonds, convertible preferred stocks, and other convertible securities. Convertbond was acquired by Morgan Stanley in 1999.


Larry McDonald’s proprietary risk indicators and risk management lessons are designed for Family Offices, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hedge-Funds, and any investment group working to avoid the dangerous pitfalls in the post-Lehman financial markets.


McDonald was featured in the Academy Award winning documentary: Inside Job, and also featured in National Geographic’s award winning documentary: The 2000’s. He is a regular contributor on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Forbes, CNBC and Fox Business.


Larry has delivered over 125 keynote speeches worldwide. He details the complexities of the political policy implications of the Trump Administration and their relationship with Congress. Larry also adds the Lehman factor to his speeches, “why it was allowed to fail”, and above all - valuable risk indicators which help investors avoid the aftershocks that continue to rock the global economy until today. His presentations are thought-provoking and captivating.



Larry McDonald as a Keynote Speaker provides rare insight into topics such as:

 

• Trump Presidency - Political Risk in 2017: An analysis of the Market Impact.
• Global Systemic Risk: A perspective on Trade and NAFTA Re-negotiations
• U.S. Global Economic Outlook: Market Impact of the Tax Reform from Washington D.C.
• China: The Epicenter of Risk and Unimaginable Debt
• The Rise and Fall of Emerging Market Economies
• Investment Risk Management
• Quantitative Easing, Federal Reserve Policy, and their side-effects

 

Past Speaking Events:

• Inside Fixed Income & Dividend Investing Summit
• Norway's DNB Markets
• Municipal Advisory Council of Texas in their 2018 Conference in San Antonio Texas
• NAFOA 2018 Fall Finance & Tribal Economies Conference
• Janus Henderson UK Investors Conference (London, UK)
• Financial Olympus National Prize (Moscow, Russia)
• National Bank of Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)
• Rand Merchant Bank (South Africa)
• Barclays / ABSA (South Africa)
• Hartford Insurance Company (New York City)
• IBM (Seattle)
• Walkers Global (San Francisco)
• Regulatory Compliance (Boca Raton)
• Montreal Stock Exchange (Canada)
• Calamos Mutual Funds (Chicago)
• Franklin Templeton (Los Angeles)
• Danske Bank (Norway)


 

 

Thoroughly enjoyable. A wealth of information."

Franklin Templeton

Fantastic lecture. The clients loved it. Packed with lifelong trading and risk management lessons."

Danske Bank, Norway

A very clever way to use the past mistakes to predict the future. His lecture about global market risk was extremely valuable for our team of asset managers."

Hartford Mutual Funds

I loved it. You'll have to come again next year."

University of Florida, Ethics and Leadership Department

Larry's presentation is a treasure chest full of Business Ethics, Sustainability and Risk Management Lessons."

Harvard Business School
 

 

Additional Information

Contact: lgm@lawrencegmcdonald.com
Book Publications: “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” Published by Crown Business, a division of Random House
"How To Listen When Markets Speak - Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy" Published by Penguin Random House
Twitter: @convertbond
Over 50,000 followers on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn

 


 
THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT
Investment Research Publication

The Bear Traps Report provides weekly insights, highlighting the impact of the political world onto the global financial markets, making specific investment calls.

Check our Memberships:

 

Why You Should Subscribe

 

Solid team, analysis and research, we have been thoroughly impressed with the Bear Traps Report. Their depth and coverage across asset classes adds substantial client value.”

Chris Hagen, LPL Financial

Our readers receive specific investments alerts, when to enter a position and when to sell. Our actionable ideas are derived from political market moving events. i.e Federal Reserve policy decisions.


Our vast resources cover; fixed income, stocks, commodities, ETF’s and volatility.


Bear Traps reveals the dangers of future political moves and guides investors along the pathway to safety. Subscribers will get the very best actionable ideas and risk management indicators from one of the most recognized independent teams in the industry.


The Bear Traps Report delivers clients a unique approach measuring political policy risk and opportunities, investor sentiment - positioning and capitulation. Capital gains are found by discounting the obvious and being there for the unexpected."

Lawrence McDonald


 

 
THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT
Investment Research Publication

The Bear Traps Report provides weekly insights, highlighting the impact of the political world onto the global financial markets, making specific investment calls.

Check our Memberships:

 

 
 

Investing from the Beating Heart of Wall Street

 

The Bear Traps Team uncovers specific opportunities in a variety of investment sectors, as they understand and share with their subscribers how these macroeconomic forces affect different asset classes. This will help investors by gauging the risk vs reward and spot the opportune moment to deploy capital in:


  1. US Credit – Full analysis of US & global Credit Markets.
  2. US Economy – In depth look at the economic conditions in the US.
  3. US Markets – Examination of equity markets, packed with trades and warning signs.
  4. Europe – Political and credit analysis of the Eurozone.
  5. Asia – Keeping a watchful eye on China and Japanese risks.
  6. Emerging Markets – Always searching for the great buy signals, and risks.
  7. Commodities – Tracking gold, oil and the mining markets.
  8. Trading Ideas – Our highest conviction short and long term trades.



Our Team includes analysts in New York, Washington D.C., Toronto, Dublin, Frankfurt, Beijing, Puerto Rico and Brazil.



 

 
THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT
Investment Research Publication

The Bear Traps Report provides weekly insights, highlighting the impact of the political world onto the global financial markets, making specific investment calls.

Check our Memberships: