Financial Advisors, Family Offices, Hedge Funds, Portfolio Managers, Trade Desks and Retail Investors all use THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT to manage global political risk
Testimonials
I am an avid reader of Bear Traps, it's a must read"
The Bear Traps Report provides a unique look at risk management, a value added perspective across all asset classes."
I’ve learned quite a lot over the past year and especially during this turbulent time in the past weeks your publications have helped a lot. My portfolio is up by a good portion but what is more important to me is that I have learned so much and your work has done much more in that process than you can imagine."
After reading your daily (Bear Traps Institutional Chat Recaps) for a couple months, I can say I think you do the most value added actionable work I've ever seen after nearly 30 years of consuming research. You blend macro with micro, using both induction and deduction in your cross asset, cross signal analysis.”
One of the most comprehensive perspectives, a look across all asset classes. It gives us a 20,000 foot view of global risk coming at us from markets, Bear Traps is excellent."
With the overload sell-side research it’s easy to sort through the noise using Bear Traps. It gives me conviction when speaking to my clients about the macroeconomic landscape and how we’ve positioned their portfolios."
I worked with Larry at Lehman and he is both a very good person and a talented trader. The Bear Traps Report is a stand out among its research peers"
I don't touch the markets without a long phone call with Larry (Bear Traps founder). He might very well be a market genius."
The Bear Traps report is the most concise, advanced research platform we've seen. It puts global market risks into perspective - every week. Our confidence investing clients' capital is enhanced meaningfully with them in my corner."
Larry McDonald and his team have been advising me for over 20 years. The 21 Lehman Risk Indicators have been very accurate at calling market declines over the last couple of years. I highly recommend his research to any institutional investor."
Larry McDonald give the keynote speech at our financial advisor risk summit. Bear Traps provides a unique overview of global political risks, which are moving markets like never before."
The Bear Traps institutional client chat on Bloomberg is one of the very finest on Wall St., adds a lot of value. It’s the best cross-asset overview out there.”
How To Listen When Markets Speak
Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy
I can’t tell you how much I learned from How to Listen When Markets Speak. The historical perspectives and insights are something every investor needs to know. Buy this book.”
Lawrence G. McDonald, founder of the economic research platform The Bear Traps Report, got a real-world education in market risk when, as a Lehman Brothers VP, he watched the firm ignore flashing warning signs before its collapse. His analysis led him to identify twenty-one indicators for gauging the health of an economy and detecting early signals of opportunity and danger.
In How to Listen When Markets Speak, McDonald unveils his unique predictive models, connecting surprising dots between past, present, and future and outlining actionable trading ideas for staying a beat ahead of the markets. Readers will learn:
A thought-provoking work at a time when the global zeitgeist is changing in profound ways.""
From Wall Street to the White House, the fantasy of an eventual “return to normal” is still alive and well, nurtured by dangerously outdated theories. But the economic world as we know it—and the rules that govern it—are over. In the coming decade, we’ll witness sustained inflation, a series of sovereign and corporate debt crises, and a thundering of capital out of financial assets into hard assets...
...Few are prepared.
- How disastrous Fed policy will collide with an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape to keep U.S. inflation near 3-5% for the next decade
- How growing demand for oil and gas, underinvestment in urgently needed energy infrastructure, and cozy Russia–Saudi Arabia relations will lift the base price of energy to historic levels
- Why hard assets and rare minerals like lithium and cobalt will outperform growth stocks, U.S. treasuries, and overcrowded passive investment strategies—and how to detect bearish and bullish trends in advance
- How passive investing and the vehicles intended to democratize finance have fueled bubbles and ideological skew by large market participants, leaving millions of 401(k)s and IRAs at risk
- Why America will likely lose its position as a global superpower and holder of the world’s premier reserve currency, and may be forced to slash Social Security, Medicare, and military spending
Rather than merely doomsaying, How to Listen When Markets Speak equips readers to make sense of our current moment, resist reactionary narratives and baseless analysis, and preserve their wealth in turbulent times. When markets speak, it pays to listen.
Membership
The Bear Traps Report is an exceptional risk management tool with solid trade ideas. I've known their team for years, highly recommend the service."
Multiple account users
21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators®
Weekly Macroeconomic Recap and Overview
ETF Capitulation Trades
Medium to Long Term Equity Asset Allocation Strategies
Weekly Credit Market Overview, Covering High Yield Investment Grade and Sovereign Government Bonds
Credit Risk Analysis
Rates (Government Bonds) Trade Ideas
Short and Long Term Credit Trade Strategies
Short and Long Term Equity Trade Strategies
Client Events and Meetings with Larry McDonald and Our Analysts
Bespoke Policy Research
CONFERENCE CALLS INCLUDING:
WEEKLY Conference Calls with Larry McDonald and one of our analysts, covering Latin America, Puerto Rico, Fed / ECB meetings, European political risk, China’s Systemic Risk and opportunities, and weekly market outlook.
WEEKLY ONE-ON-ONE calls with Larry McDonald covering political risk and market outlook
WhatsApp Bear Traps Trade Alerts
Live institutional BLOOMBERG chat with over 650 Institutional Investors and more than 60 contributors
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21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators®
Weekly Macroeconomic Recap and Overview
Macro Trade Ideas, Currency Views and High Yield
ETF Capitulation Trades
Medium to Long Term Equity Asset Allocation Strategies
Weekly Credit Market Overview, Covering High Yield Investment Grade and Sovereign Government Bonds
Client Events and Meetings with Larry McDonald and Our Analysts
CONFERENCE CALLS INCLUDING:
MONTHLY Conference Calls with Larry McDonald and one of our analysts, covering Latin America, Puerto Rico, Fed / ECB meetings, European political risk, China’s Systemic Risk and opportunities, and weekly market outlook.
MONTHLY ONE-ON-ONE calls with Larry McDonald covering political risk and market outlook
WhatsApp Bear Traps Trade Alerts
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Single User
21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators®
Weekly Macroeconomic Recap and Overview
Macro Trade Ideas, Currency Views and High Yield
ETF Capitulation Trades
CONFERENCE CALLS INCLUDING:
MONTHLY Client's Conference calls with Larry McDonald and our team
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Medium to Long Term Strategies
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More than 700 appearances, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, MSNBC, CNN
Over the last decade our Larry McDonald has made more than 700 appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, MSNBC, CNN and the Academy Award winning documentary Inside Job.
To Learn more about THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT please contact inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com
“Our indicators tell us, we’re very close to a Lehman-like drawdown,”
“Our indicators tell us, we’re very close to a Lehman-like drawdown,” argues Larry McDonald, a former strategist at Société Générale who now runs The Bear Traps report.
- Financial Times, February 20, 2020
To Learn more about THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT please contact inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com
GET A FREE SAMPLE FROM THE BEAR TRAPS
Over 75 of the top 100 asset managers in the world turn to The Bear Traps Reports every week for analysis, trading ideas and actionable research with no bias.
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In order to provide our members globally with the highest level of quality service, from time to time we restrict access. As space for new membership opens up, we can update you on availability.
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EVENTS
OUR NEW BOOK NOW AVAILABLE IN CHINESE, KOREAN AND PORTUGUESE
HOW TO LISTEN TO MARKETS SPEAK - INTERNATIONAL
Our new book is traveling
Recognized on the top list of books in finance by Amazon, our book is now translated in Chinese, Korean and Portuguese.We are pleased to announce our book is now translated, expanding to frontiers overseas, THE WORLD NEEDS TO LISTEN WHEN MARKETS SPEAK
OUR BOOK IN THE TOP RANKED BOOKS IN FINANCE BY THE CFA INSTITUTE
TOP RANKED BOOKS IN FINANCE - 2024 (CFA INSTITUTE)
A Colossal Failure of Common Sense
The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers - By Lawrence G. McDonald with Patrick Robinson.We get a close-up view of the participants in the Lehman collapse, especially those who saw it coming with a helpless, angry certainty. We meet the Brahmins at the top, whose reckless, pedal-to-the-floor addiction to growth finally demolished the nation’ s oldest investment bank. The Wall Street we encounter here is a ruthless place, where brilliance, arrogance, ambition, greed, capacity for relentless toil, and other human traits combine in a potent mix that sometimes fuels prosperity but occasionally destroys it.
The full significance of the dissolution of Lehman Brothers remains to be measured. But this much is certain: it was a devastating blow to America’s—and the world’s—financial system. And it need not have happened. This is the story of why it did.
RANKED ONCE MORE ON THE TOP LIST OF BEST FINANCIAL BOOKS OF ALL TIME - CFA INSTITUTE
When Markets Speak - Book Event - NYC March 21, 2024
Book Event - NYC - THE HARVARD CLUB - March 21, 2024
How to Listen When Markets Speak,
RISKS, MYTHS, AND INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A RADICALLY RESHAPED ECONOMY - By Lawrence G. McDonald with James Patrick Robinson."Any investor with skin in the game needs to buy this book" - Niall Ferguson
To RSVP for our next event email Tatiana at Tatiana@thebeartrapsreport.com
When Markets Speak - Book Event - Panama - January 17, 2024
Book Event - Panama - January 17, 2024
How to Listen When Markets Speak,
RISKS, MYTHS, AND INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A RADICALLY RESHAPED ECONOMY - By Lawrence G. McDonald with James Patrick Robinson."I can't tell you how much I learned from How to Listen When Markets Speak. The historical perspectives and insights are something every investor needs to know. Buy this book." - Mark Cuban
To RSVP for our next event email Tatiana at Tatiana@thebeartrapsreport.com
REALVISION - THE LARRY MCDONALD SERIES: DAVID EINHORN - FEB 17, 2022
With the Fed Stuck Among Many Rocks and Multiple Hard Places, David Einhorn Charts a Value-Focused Course
David Einhorn talks with our Larry McDonald about macro factors impacting markets, including rapidly rising inflation as well as supply-chain problems. Einhorn, famous for shorting Lehman Brothers before its collapse in 2008, notes that Greenlight’s portfolio is built to withstand whatever the coming monetary tightening may bring.
- February 17th, and 18th, 2022.
Email us at inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com to know more.
CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR LARRY MCDONALD, One of The Best Finance Books of all Time - CFA
LARRY'S BOOK AMONG THE BEST 20 FINANCIAL BOOKS OF ALL TIMES AS PER CFA INSTITUTE
The list features A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers—Lawrence McDonald and Patrick Robinson (2010) and includes titles like Liar’s Poker—Michael Lewis, Chasing Goldman Sachs: How the Masters of the Universe Melted Wall Street Down—And Why They’ll Take Us to the Brink Again—Suzanne McGee, Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System and Themselves—Andrew Ross Sorkin, Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco—Bryan Burrough and John Helyar, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday achine—Michael Lewis, One Up on Wall Street: How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market—Peter Lynch with John Rothchild, and others.
Email us at inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com to know more.
REALVISION - THE LARRY MCDONALD SERIES: MARK CUBAN - JUNE 6TH, 2020
THIS FEELS A LOT LIKE THE INTERNET BUBBLE
In this conversation with New York Times best-selling author and The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald, Cuban explores the eerie similarities between that market and today’s. They also discuss the reopening for the NBA and beyond, Cuban’s economic outlook amid unprecedented uncertainty, and the current political situation in the U.S. that has many asking, “When will Mark Cuban run for president?”
- June 6th, 2020.
Email us at inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com to know more.
FOX BUSINESS INTERVIEW WITH MARIA BARTIROMO, MARCH 26TH, 2020
Our Larry McDonald, founder and editor of The Bear Traps Report was invited by Maria Bartiromo to provide his insights and Macro forecast on her show, we are very grateful for being part of the segment
- March 26th, 2020.
About The Show
"Mornings with Maria" features anchor Maria Bartiromo alongside a roundtable of rotating industry titans and economic experts discussing the major news and themes driving the business day and the market moves.
Email us at inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com to know more.
October 2, 2018 - Our Larry provided the keynote at NAFOA 2018 Fall Finance & Tribal Economies Conference
October 18-19, 2018 - Larry provided the keynote at the Municipal Advisory Council of Texas in their 2018 Conference in San Antonio Texas
October 19, 2018 - Larry met with Norway's DNB Markets, providing the Keynote at their event
November 13-14, 2018 - Larry delivered the keynote at Newport Beach, CA for the Inside Fixed Income & Dividend Investing Summit
If you would like to know more about the Bear Traps Report please email inquires@thebeartrapsreport.com
The Bear Traps Report
Since 2007, 68% of stock market returns are tied to political events"
The Bear Traps report is a weekly independent Investment Research Publication focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas. The service is tailored for asset managers, hedge funds, financial advisors, traders and more. Our report allows investors to spend a lot less time diving through research reports. We strive to get to the meat of what is moving markets.
Along with actionable trade ideas, we provide clients with a timely, first-hand look at global political market moving events. Our teams on the ground in New York, Toronto, Washington, Puerto Rico, Brussels, Dublin, Rio (Brazil) and Beijing (China) bring you closer to what is moving markets.
Since 2008, it's becoming ever more clear that politics is edging out economics as the key driver of markets"
As governments and central banks drive markets, we turn these policy decisions into actionable trade ideas for clients around the world.
Credit and political risks have a lot more impact on central bank policy decisions than economic data. Today, there is nothing more important than staying on top of global political systemic risk, these factors are moving markets like never before.
Our independent investment research stems from an elite team of analysts and strategists with real trading floor experience. Bear Traps was founded by Lawrence McDonald, he has spent 30 years working on Wall Street. He was formerly a senior distressed debt trader at Lehman Brothers and was part of the team that made $2 billion betting against the U.S housing market.
The Bear Traps Report delivers clients a unique approach measuring political policy risk and opportunities, investor sentiment - positioning and capitulation. Capital gains are found by discounting the obvious and being there for the unexpected.
The Bear Traps trading ideas are centered around macro market moving events. Ideas stem from former Wall Street traders, and using a 7 factor model we score and rank stocks, ETF’s and sectors for the perfect opportunity to deploy capital.
The report will give you a complete view of the global markets, where to spot opportunities, and how to avoid risk. The letter is unique and unbiased, unlike any other research on Wall Street.
This enables our subscribers to spend more time on business development by having access to our analysts’ expert opinions and a more in-depth reach of political market moving events around the globe. Getting ahead of systemic risk coming at us from Asia, Europe and Latin America will help clients avoid substantial losses and generate above average returns.
Looking at the current market landscape, political factors are more important than macro economic issues.
POLITICAL RISK EVENTS MOVING MARKETS:
Subprime Crisis 2007
Lehman, Bear Sterns & Fannie & Freddie 2008
Grexit Risk 2010
Debt Ceiling 2013
Russia 2014
Central Bank Divergence 2015
Asia 2016
Brexit 2016
Turkey Coup 2016
Elections 2016
Lawrence McDonald
NY Times Best Selling Author, CNBC Contributor
Bear Traps Report Creator
Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.
Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China’s Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.
In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today’s leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 – 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Société Générale.
In 2010 he founded an investment research firm which publishes the The Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.
In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies.
Prior to working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities information with news, valuation, terms and analysis tools for convertible bonds, convertible preferred stocks, and other convertible securities. Convertbond was acquired by Morgan Stanley in 1999.
Larry McDonald’s proprietary risk indicators and risk management lessons are designed for Family Offices, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hedge-Funds, and any investment group working to avoid the dangerous pitfalls in the post-Lehman financial markets.
McDonald was featured in the Academy Award winning documentary: Inside Job, and also featured in National Geographic’s award winning documentary: The 2000’s. He is a regular contributor on Bloomberg TV and Radio, Forbes, CNBC and Fox Business.
Larry has delivered over 125 keynote speeches worldwide. He details the complexities of the political policy implications of the Trump Administration and their relationship with Congress. Larry also adds the Lehman factor to his speeches, “why it was allowed to fail”, and above all - valuable risk indicators which help investors avoid the aftershocks that continue to rock the global economy until today. His presentations are thought-provoking and captivating.
Larry McDonald as a Keynote Speaker provides rare insight into topics such as:
• Trump Presidency - Political Risk in 2017: An analysis of the Market Impact.
• Global Systemic Risk: A perspective on Trade and NAFTA Re-negotiations
• U.S. Global Economic Outlook: Market Impact of the Tax Reform from Washington D.C.
• China: The Epicenter of Risk and Unimaginable Debt
• The Rise and Fall of Emerging Market Economies
• Investment Risk Management
• Quantitative Easing, Federal Reserve Policy, and their side-effects
Past Speaking Events:
• Inside Fixed Income & Dividend Investing Summit
• Norway's DNB Markets
• Municipal Advisory Council of Texas in their 2018 Conference in San Antonio Texas
• NAFOA 2018 Fall Finance & Tribal Economies Conference
• Janus Henderson UK Investors Conference (London, UK)
• Financial Olympus National Prize (Moscow, Russia)
• National Bank of Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)
• Rand Merchant Bank (South Africa)
• Barclays / ABSA (South Africa)
• Hartford Insurance Company (New York City)
• IBM (Seattle)
• Walkers Global (San Francisco)
• Regulatory Compliance (Boca Raton)
• Montreal Stock Exchange (Canada)
• Calamos Mutual Funds (Chicago)
• Franklin Templeton (Los Angeles)
• Danske Bank (Norway)
Thoroughly enjoyable. A wealth of information."
Fantastic lecture. The clients loved it. Packed with lifelong trading and risk management lessons."
A very clever way to use the past mistakes to predict the future. His lecture about global market risk was extremely valuable for our team of asset managers."
I loved it. You'll have to come again next year."
Larry's presentation is a treasure chest full of Business Ethics, Sustainability and Risk Management Lessons."
Additional Information
Contact: lgm@lawrencegmcdonald.com
Book Publications: “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” Published by Crown Business, a division of Random House
"How To Listen When Markets Speak - Risks, Myths, and Investment Opportunities in a Radically Reshaped Economy" Published by Penguin Random House
Twitter: @convertbond
Over 50,000 followers on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn
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Why You Should Subscribe
Solid team, analysis and research, we have been thoroughly impressed with the Bear Traps Report. Their depth and coverage across asset classes adds substantial client value.”
Our readers receive specific investments alerts, when to enter a position and when to sell. Our actionable ideas are derived from political market moving events. i.e Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Our vast resources cover; fixed income, stocks, commodities, ETF’s and volatility.
Bear Traps reveals the dangers of future political moves and guides investors along the pathway to safety. Subscribers will get the very best actionable ideas and risk management indicators from one of the most recognized independent teams in the industry.
The Bear Traps Report delivers clients a unique approach measuring political policy risk and opportunities, investor sentiment - positioning and capitulation. Capital gains are found by discounting the obvious and being there for the unexpected."
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Investing from the Beating Heart of Wall Street
The Bear Traps Team uncovers specific opportunities in a variety of investment sectors, as they understand and share with their subscribers how these macroeconomic forces affect different asset classes. This will help investors by gauging the risk vs reward and spot the opportune moment to deploy capital in:
- US Credit – Full analysis of US & global Credit Markets.
- US Economy – In depth look at the economic conditions in the US.
- US Markets – Examination of equity markets, packed with trades and warning signs.
- Europe – Political and credit analysis of the Eurozone.
- Asia – Keeping a watchful eye on China and Japanese risks.
- Emerging Markets – Always searching for the great buy signals, and risks.
- Commodities – Tracking gold, oil and the mining markets.
- Trading Ideas – Our highest conviction short and long term trades.
Our Team includes analysts in New York, Washington D.C., Toronto, Dublin, Frankfurt, Beijing, Puerto Rico and Brazil.
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