Political Risk and the Revenge of Joe Lunch Pail

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.”

Mark Twain


We are NOT making a political opinion here, we are managing risk.

In managing 2016 election risk, there really is only one definitive thing we’ve learned.  The U.S. media has been absolutely clueless in terms their handle on the will of the American people so far.  For over 12 months, they’ve called Donald Trump “done” well over 50,000 times.  Like group therapy, they sit around Manhattan cocktail parties trying to convince themselves the wicked witch is dead, only to be disappointed again and again.


“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.”

General George S. Patton




Sign up for our political risk updates, get our Election 2016 Playbook, click on this link below:

Don’t miss our next trade idea.  Get on the Bear Traps Report Today, click here

We are NOT making a political opinion here, we are managing risk.

Managing expectations, determining how much is priced in to every trade is the key to finding the best entry point in any investment.  The Brexit drama was a classic example of this powerful political dynamic’s market impact.

Middle ClassInstead of listening to 2000 journalists lecture us on how the 2016 election is all over, lets manage risk.  Where’s the most attractive risk – reward in this year’s election cycle?   What’s priced in and Not priced in?  Should the VIX (the CBOE stock market volatility index) really be under 12 one hundred days before this election?  All you need to know is up in this chart above.  We call it the “revenge of Joe lunch pail.”  Just like middle-class families in the countryside of England in June (Brexit vote), there are so many working class Americans who have had it with globalization, political correctness and elitist media telling them how to vote.   They are tired of living in fear.  All they know is their incomes and jobs have moved to Asia, terror and U.S. racial tensions are on the rise.  It’s pure common sense.  Whether right or wrong, Donald Trump has tapped into a powerful political vein running across America.  It DOES NOT MATTER whether Mr. Trump has an effective plan that will work, Joe Lunch Pail is just VERY HAPPY someone is finally listening to him.

“70% of middle class households saw their income drop over the last decade. This compares to declining incomes in just 2% to 9% of households the previous 12 years.”

McKinsey Research, August 2016

Don’t miss our next trade idea.  Get on the Bear Traps Report Today, click here

Brexit Lessons, Is Anyone Listening?

According to a study conducted by the Bear Traps team, heading into the Brexit over 95% of London based journalists believed the “remain” would succeed.  Across the pond, all the group therapy did was get markets WAY offsides in terms of risk heading into the Brexit referendum.  Mr. Market was lectured and lectured and lectured by clueless London based journalists.  This crowd spent more time tweeting  their like minded ideas to eachother, than actually driving across the countryside and trying to determine what the people actually wanted out of the referendum.

incomeJoe Lunch Pail is hurting, his family has been dealing with flat to declining income going on 6 years.  As much as the U.S. media wants to get off this topic and focus on their perception of Trump’s flaws, they are ignoring the elephant in the room.  The U.S. media regime is making the same mistake the BBC made in London during the pre-Brexit risk analysis.  Far too many people priced the risk of Brexit at unrealistically low levels, we know what happened next.  There are eight million people in London, 50m outside the city.  London votes 8-1 to remain, but people across the countryside voted 3-1 to leave.  The only problem, no one listened to the butcher, the baker, the candlestick maker.  Lets NOT make the same mistake they did, we MUST learn from history, not repeat it.

We are NOT making a political opinion here, we are managing risk.

Voter turnout

2012 – 2016

GOP +50%
DEM -15%

This is a freight train running down hill, tough to stop.

Last 30 Days of “Islamic Terror”

Countries: 22
Attacks: 141
Killed: 1165
Injured: 1803

Religion of Peace data

Rising Rust Belt Risk

Joe Lunch Pail is paying more attention to the rising terror threat than the media’s obsession with a Kahn – Trump war of words.

Rust BeltYou wont find this chart in the main stream media, but unemployment is sharply on the rise in the Rust Belt, especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania. 

The odds of Donald Trump becoming president must be analyzed relative to current expectations, the bar is VERY low.   The Market has NOT priced in a surprise Trump surge.  However, since extreme geo-political tragedies have become near common events, Trump has clearly boosted his chances by taking an aggressive stance on addressing these issues. The Rust Belt (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania) region of the U.S. has been especially hit by much economic hardship, racial tensions and social unrest. In 2012, Obama won by 64 electoral votes, the sum of the votes of these four states is 64. It is also interesting to note that since then 3/4 of this states have elected Republican governors.

File_001 (21)Two term Presidential elections and recessions have a lot in common.

2008-16 GOP Momentum

Democrats Seats Lost

Senate: -13

House: -69

Governorships: -11

State Legislative Chambers: -30

Get our Full Report here with Investment Ideas, Political Risk Strategies:

Don’t miss our next trade idea.  Get on the Bear Traps Report Today, click here


2 thoughts on “Political Risk and the Revenge of Joe Lunch Pail”

  1. I just hope the liberal media is drinking its own kool aid – I’ve turned off my tv news – trying to find some good Twitter sources.

  2. The rust belt has been hit by unusually high racial tensions? Other than Ohio I can’t think of cases. Also 2 out of 4 states unemployment levels are receding, how is that particularly terrible for anyone?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *