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Brexit risk looks fully priced in to us. Reminiscent of Y2K, fears have gone viral. The British Pound is back to the lovely days of Princess Diana.
The In / Out referendum on Britain’s future in the EU will be held in just over six weeks, on June 23, 2016. Prime Minister David Cameron is in favour of continued British membership, under the terms he negotiated early in 2016. Cameron has the support of the Chancellor the Exchequer George Osbourne, and the majority – but not all – of his Cabinet. Several cabinet members, including prominent Tories are campaigning for a so called Brexit. Outside of the Cabinet, the popular former Mayor of London Boris Johnston will also campaign in favour of Brexit.
British Pound, on Key Support
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The next three largest parties in the House of Commons – Labour, the SNP, and the Liberal Democrats, are all campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU. The Eurosceptic UKIP has only one seat in parliament but received 12.7% of the vote in the 2015 general election. Unsurprisingly, it is campaigning for Brexit.
ICM Poll, May 6-8
Leave: 46%
Stay: 44%
Undecided: 10%
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The odds on Britain staying in are telling an entirely different story. They are currently around 1/3, having been 1/2 a few weeks ago i.e the odds on staying are shortening. What is more reliable: what people tell a pollster or what they do with their money?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result