“There are many ways to short oil or oil equities based on your risk tolerance and level of sophistication. If you are long oil, we recommend you take down both equity or commodity exposure to crude. Our WTI target is $42-$44 over the next month, $35 over the next three months. Oil is a STRONG SELL in our view.”
The Bear Traps Report, August 18, 2016
Monthly OPEC Oil Production
August, Million Barrels Day
2016: 33.7*
2015: 32.1
2014: 30.4
2013: 30.1
Bloomberg
“Breaking: Saudi, Russia Pledge Oil Cooperation Without Agreeing Freeze”
September 5, 2016
Since the highs of August 19th, oil plunged 11% globally. In recent weeks, markets have witnessed rumor after head fake. Around the world, some crude policy makers have been desperate to get prices higher.
Today, two of the largest oil producers on earth pledged to “cooperate” to stabilize global markets, while failing to announce any specific measures to bolster prices.
No concrete plans were announced at the joint press briefing in Hangzhou, and Al-Falih later told Al Arabiya television there’s no current need to cap production.
Flashback
“Breaking: Russia, Saudi Arabia set up working group on oil, gas cooperation.”
November 26, 2015
Meanwhile, Iran is Hitting the Oil Production Gas Pedal, Reuters
Up on Euphoria, Down on Impatience
Today, after a 5% surge, oil pared gains (+0.81%) on speculation Saudi Arabia and Russia might detail a plan to drive up prices, markets later said; “where’s the beef?”
Creating temporary short squeezes has become a national summer past time in some oil producing nations. Over the years in oil markets one thing has become very reliable. When you see “plans” with few ambitious announcements, there’s typically a lack of decisive follow-up action.
