Russian Equities on Key Technical Level

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Media stories are countless – President Donald Trump has acted more friendly toward Russia and Russian president Vladimir Putin.  We must ask, why are Russian equities down 4% in 2017, 10% off their recent highs?  It’s clear, the stress the White House is experiencing over its relationship with Russia is weighing on Russian equities.  There were very high hopes  the Trump administration could be more willing to roll back sanctions placed on Russia in response to its actions against Ukraine (Circa 2014-15).

Of course, oil’s 2017 headwinds have played a key role here, much of Russia’s economic activity is centered around crude.  Energy is by far the largest sector weight in the RSX.  It’s no secret, Russia is one one of the world’s largest non-OPEC producers.

Russian Equities

RSX newOnce up 86% from the January 2016 lows, Russian equities have lost 10% from their recent highs.  Down 4% on the year but stull up 14% since the election of Donald Trump – in line with the S&P 500.  This descending wedge above speaks to a key technical level Russian equities are dancing on – we’re about to see a significant move…

Price to Book Value: iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF 

2017: 0.78x
2016: 0.67x
2015: 0.72x
2014: 0.51x
2013: 0.71x
2012: 0.85x
2011: 0.80x
2010: 0.75x
2009: 0.41x
2008: 1.9x
2007: 3.1x

Bloomberg, Bear Traps Report data

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