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“Commodities are starting to revive after a 10-year bear market. Natural resources like energy, metals, and agriculture look set for an extended run, and investors should get on board.
The recovery in commodity prices, Goldman Sachs analysts say, “will actually be the beginning of a much longer structural bull market” that could rival that of the 1970s, when gold rose 25-fold, and the mid to late 2000s, when oil peaked at over $140 a barrel.
Reasons to be bullish are ample. Global economies look poised to revive in the second half of 2021 as pandemic restrictions ease. And monetary conditions have rarely been so easy. The Federal Reserve may keep short interest rates near zero through 2023, while tolerating 2%-plus inflation.
“Commodities are set up for a significant period of outperformance after such a long period of underperformance relative to other asset classes,” says Roland Morris, commodity strategist at VanEck Global. “There is a lot of fiscal and monetary stimulus being applied globally, and the dollar may fall as global growth rebounds. There are supply constraints and new demand drivers for industrial metals from the electrification of the world.”
The Goldman Sachs commodity analysts are bullish in part because of what they see as “structural underinvestment” in commodities, particularly in energy, following a decade of poor returns. While the energy-heavy S&P GSCI commodity index has rallied 66% from its April 2020 low, its total return has been negative 60% over the past 10 years against a 263% total return for the S&P 500 index.”