Listen to Cuyahoga County, Ohio

This is a bellwether county for the Dems, the Cleveland suburb will have all eyes on her tonight.  With 1.3 million strong, this county has gone for the Democrats every year since 1972.  Since 1996, she’s been 60% + for the Democratic party.  In 2012, the county voted 69% for President Obama over Mitt Romney’s 29%.

We will be watching Cuyahoga County closely, any signs of a weak Clinton showing will speak volumes as to her evening’s fortunes.

Poor Early Showing for Dems

Early voting was down across the board in Cuyahoga County. Early in-person voting was down about 16 percent countywide compared to 2012 and about 14 percent fewer ballots were mailed in. In total, 218,711 early votes were cast, down from 253,512 at the same point in 2012.

GOP Strong Early Data

Butler county in Ohio is the Republican stronghold. Romney won 62% of vote there and Bush won 65% in ’04. Early votes cast +23% vs 2012.

Thus far, Trump is ahead of Hillary Clinton in Pinellas Ct by 13K votes. This is a big county in Florida (460K votes in 2012) and Obama won it by 26K votes (6ppt margin).

Peso Vol Still Elevated

The Peso has become tied more to the U.S. election than any other asset class. Domestic factors in Mexico such as inflation, industrial
production and GDP have become side points to the fear of a Donald Trump presidency. Following the Comey announcement, the Peso rocketed higher against the Dollar and is currently up over 2%. As we displayed in previous notes, investors were hedging Trump risk through the Peso, which is why we saw 1 month volatility in USD/MXN at its highest level since Lehman. Monday’s Mexican Peso strength in spot (the currency itself) is telling the market not to worry, but 1m vol is still singing a “risk-off” tune, we still believe Trump risk is real.