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Join our Larry McDonald on CNBC’s Halftime Report Friday at 12:30pm

“Central banks around the world are having more and more influence on the markets. Many people are trading off of anticipated policy moves and the crowded trades are even more profound. However, the sentiment of investors making bets on the “great divergence” has reached a fever pitch.  Fed funds futures are expecting at 78% of a 25bps rate hike, far too many people are on one side of the boat.  We believe credit risk will veto the Fed policy path next year.  We do not see rate hikes coming in 2016. We implore you to buy the gold miners GDX and long U.S. Treasury bonds.”

The Bear Traps Report, December 9, 2015

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The clowns, otherwise know as “stock market cheerleaders” are quick to remind us every time equities near record highs.  Over the last 2 years, we’ve heard countless times how “we’re breaking out into record territory.”

Its so disingenuous. We must all deal with the reality of what were up against.  Since the Federal Reserve started to taper their monetary goodie bag, stocks have gone no where, while a few names FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) have hogged all the returns.

S&P 500

Facebook is up 51% since November 7, 2014 while the S&P 500 is unched.

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Russell 2000

Amazon is up 98% since October 29, 2013 while the Russell 2000 is unched.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

Google is up 23% since October 30, 2014 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is unched.

Get on the Bear Traps Report Today, click here

Join our Larry McDonald on CNBC’s Halftime Report Friday at 12:30pm

“Central banks around the world are having more and more influence on the markets. Many people are trading off of anticipated policy moves and the crowded trades are even more profound. However, the sentiment of investors making bets on the “great divergence” has reached a fever pitch.  Fed funds futures are expecting at 78% of a 25bps rate hike, far too many people are on one side of the boat.  We believe credit risk will veto the Fed policy path next year.  We do not see rate hikes coming in 2016. We implore you to buy the gold miners GDX and long U.S. Treasury bonds.”

The Bear Traps Report, December 9, 2015

 

Chances of a July Rate Cut from the Bank of England

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June 24: 41%

June 1: 9%

Bloomberg

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney responded to Britain’s decision to quit the European Union with a 250 billion-pound ($343 billion) pledge of funds to support the banking system. He also said policy makers will “assess economic conditions and will consider any additional policy responses.” That means more action may be forthcoming if market turmoil spills over into the economy, with investors increasing bets on an interest-rate cut by next month. – BN

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A year ago today, 88% of Wall St was calling for 5 Fed Rate Hikes (2015 into 16) before:

-A possible China currency devaluation

-Brexit vote

-US election

The Blind Squirrel

Wall St’s cluelessness over risk management and how it relates to Fed policy never ceases to amaze us.  They’re the gang that can’t shoot straight.

Central Bankers have been bamboozling Wall St. for far too long.

A Meeting of the Gods

The world’s monetary Gods, our saviors, will meet at the Bank of International Settlements meeting in Basel over the weekend.  We have a list of 3 trades focused on their next move, just click on the green link below.

As you can see above, the explosion in their balance sheets have had the end result of bringing the global economy to the brink of recession.

We must have a plan for their next move, get on our Bear Traps Report:

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