Here’s our latest:

*FED DECEMBER RATE HIKE ODDS DROP BELOW 50%, SWAPS DATA SHOW

*OIL NOW 17% OFF THE OCTOBER HIGHS

*DONALD TRUMP PROJECTED TO WIN NORTH CAROLINA: NBC

*DONALD TRUMP WINS FLORIDA, EXTENDS ELECTORAL COLLEGE LEAD

*TREASURIES RISE, 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS MOST SINCE BREXIT TO 1.74%

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were locked in a tight race Tuesday evening for the critical battleground state of Florida, with the billionaire businessman’s White House prospects hanging in the balance.

With 93 percent of precincts reporting, Trump was leading Clinton 49.2 percent to 47.7 percent.

*MEXICAN PESO DROPS MORE THAN 3%, PAST 19 PER DOLLAR

Stocks plunged globally as Donald Trump has moved into a position of control over the race for the White House.

Don’t miss our next trade idea. Get on the Bear Traps Report Today, click here

U.S. 2016 Election Electoral Votes

Trump 51
Clinton 44

*REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN CONTROL OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: NBC

*YOUNG WINS SENATE RACE IN IND.; REPUBLICANS HOLD SEAT

*RUBIO WINS SENATE RACE IN FLA.; REPUBLICANS HOLD SEAT

*PORTMAN WINS SENATE RACE IN OHIO; REPUBLICANS HOLD SEAT

Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton kicked off easy and expected wins as states began closing polls with results from several crucial battlegrounds still outstanding.

Trump won in West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Kentucky, all reliably Republican states. Clinton was the victor in a group of Democratic-leaning states including Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland and Vermont, according to projections based on vote counts and exit polls by television networks and the Associated Press, Bloomberg.

GOP on Track to Keep the Senate

Republicans scored two key victories in the critical battle for control of the Senate, with Marco Rubio of Florida winning re-election and Representative Todd Young defeating Democrats’ star recruit, former SenatorEvan Bayh.

But Democrats gained a seat in Illinois as Representative Tammy Duckworthdefeated incumbent Mark Kirk, according to media projections.

Mexico’s currency added to its gains late on Tuesday in the latest sign that investors have ratcheted up their expectations that Hillary Clinton is marching to Victory.

Pick up our latest note here.

A Stronger Mexican Peso vs the Dollar is Viewed as a Clinton Win

After hours the Mexican peso maintained gains and New Zealand stocks extended the global rally, with Hillary Clinton narrowly in front in opinion polls as traders wait for the end of voting in the U.S. presidential election. Gold and the yen held losses as demand for haven assets eased.

Going into the big event, we took a look at how market responds to past presidential election cycles going back to the 1950’s.

Click here for our latest report.

U.S. equity markets have been consistent around elections, tending to sell off. U.S. equities have risen only about one out of every three times since 1928.

Despite the broader market telling you Hillary has it in the bag, there are things under the surface which suggest the market is still fearing a Brexit 2.0

Investors are still buying puts at a much higher rate than calls, this suggests market participants are putting on hedges going into tonights uncertainty. The market is more fearful than you think. 

If Brexit taught us one thing, it is to be more diligent in terms of reading what the market is telling us. On the day of the referendum in the UK, the FTSE (stock index in the UK) rose 1.2%. Today, the S&P 500 is up almost half a percent at 10 points. Risk management is key in election and political risk events such as this one.

Join us to see what else we are watching.

Here are a few counties to keep an eye on. Differentials in important counties vs. historical norms will be the key to finding out who will win the White House.

In 2012, they called North Carolina at 10:53pm and Goldman has estimate “call time” after midnight now, it will be a LONG night.

As we have stressed in Our Bear Traps notes, independents are crucial. They are a much larger percentage of the voting population than people think.

What was the 2012 Share of the 125.9m Votes Cast?

Independents: 44%

Democrats: 31%

Republicans: 25%

Colorado

1) Arapahoe County, Colorado. Was GOP for most of recent history but in past two elections Obama took it.

2) Jefferson County, Colorado. This state has picked the President in the last 4 elections for Colorado.

Florida

1) Duval County, Florida. Has to be a stronghold for Trump, but in last election cycle a high African American turnout almost flipped it to Obama. Either way, the damage was done. Trump needs to win big here.

2) Hillsborough County, Florida. Since 1960 no candidate has won Florida without winning this county.

Michigan

1) Macomb County, Michigan. Third most populated county in the state. Macomb is a stronghold for Reagan democrats. It will be Important to see how much Hillary wins this county by. If by less than Obama’s win of 4% in 2012, will be a big Trump boost.