Counties you need to Watch

Here are a few counties to keep an eye on. Differentials in important counties vs. historical norms will be the key to finding out who will win the White House.

In 2012, they called North Carolina at 10:53pm and Goldman has estimate “call time” after midnight now, it will be a LONG night.

As we have stressed in Our Bear Traps notes, independents are crucial. They are a much larger percentage of the voting population than people think.

What was the 2012 Share of the 125.9m Votes Cast?

Independents: 44%

Democrats: 31%

Republicans: 25%


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1) Arapahoe County, Colorado. Was GOP for most of recent history but in past two elections Obama took it.


2) Jefferson County, Colorado. This state has picked the President in the last 4 elections for Colorado.



1) Duval County, Florida. Has to be a stronghold for Trump, but in last election cycle a high African American turnout almost flipped it to Obama. Either way, the damage was done. Trump needs to win big here.


2) Hillsborough County, Florida. Since 1960 no candidate has won Florida without winning this county.



1) Macomb County, Michigan. Third most populated county in the state. Macomb is a stronghold for Reagan democrats. It will be Important to see how much Hillary wins this county by. If by less than Obama’s win of 4% in 2012, will be a big Trump boost.


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