The Citigroup economic surprise index is at its highest level since January 2015, that’s the good news.

Since 2010, Q1 U.S. GDP has averaged a touch better than a sad 1% growth, while Q2 has been coming in close to a robust 3%.  Seasonal adjustments have been powerful and the key to bond trading and anticipating Fed policy moves has been found in surfing the waves inside these back and forth trends.

Like clockwork, each year as we move from Q1 to Q2, Wall St.’s economist have been getting all beared up.  They lower the bar so far down, only to be embarrassed once again by a powerful upside reversal.

In early July, after holding a 1.40% U.S. 10 year treasury bond target for nearly two years, we recommended subscribers short U.S. treasuries through the TBT etf.  See more of our ideas, click here below: